Comparative assessment of future solar power potential based on CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model ensembles

نویسندگان

چکیده

While the popularity and feasibility of solar power have increased toward achieving a low-carbon climate-resilient society, it is uncertain how changes in climate attributes will affect future potential output. This study presents comparative assessment terms technology for harnessing energy from insolation (PVP vs CSP), projections (CMIP5 CMIP6), emission scenarios. Both CMIP5 CMIP6 multi-model capture major characteristics global distribution seen PVP CSP calculated using reanalysis data during historical period. However, despite general similarity to CMIP5-based results, models slightly outperform their counterparts regarding quantitative metrics enhance robustness change signal estimated by statistical significance inter-model consistency. The patterns are sensitive scenarios that can control degree warming. Under fossil-fueled development scenarios, greater increase temperatures may lead high vulnerability supply reducing output both CSP. timely relevant emphasizing benefits mitigation, which support sustainable energy.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Renewable Energy

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['0960-1481', '1879-0682']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2023.02.039